US Bond rates will 'skyrocket' ... blah, blah, blah
Greece is a 'dress rehearsal' for the US ... blah, blah, blah
Debt Ceiling Debate ... blah, blah, blah
US is a 'Ponzi Economy' ... blah, blah, blah
Therefore any sharp move down has to be an impulse right? And is a >50% chance that it is the start of P3, right?
Things are not hunky-dory with the US economy, far from it. I still think we are in a (very complicated) secular bear market.
But there is a lot of rhetoric going around right now and a lot of macro-'analysis' that has no basis in reality. It is a lot of convertible currency economic analysis, conflated with a lot of pseudo/useless analysis, and combined with a lot of ideology. And if you listen to that crowd, the 'gig is up' on the US economy.
My advice is to ignore the noise. We are in a secular bear market. Stop looking for impulses (either up or down). Assume that a wave is corrective first and foremost. Make the market prove to you that it is an impulse (after a few months of progress). Until it does so, we are in a corrective cyclical bull market. And being impatient about the count won't change the fact that it will be messy, confusing, and with lots of false starts down.
