Here be me reasons for thinkin this wave be done.
..... [alright Captain binv, let's lay off the pirate talk, okay?]
fine (sobbing into his Rum)
Exhibit 1 -- The VIX. Has been putting in a bottoming stance complete with positive divergence for several weeks. Today marks a downtrend breakout.
Exhibit 2 -- the McClellan Oscillator. Has been diverging for a couple weeks as well. This is very common before a trend change.
Exhibit 3 -- Decisive trend breaks on *ALL* the major US indices. See highlights in yellow.
Exhibits 4 and 5 -- Major indices either flirting with or trading back below major moving averages.
Exhibit 6 -- It just "looks done". Clear break out of the wedge accompanied by some serious negative divergence on a 60 minute chart.
So could this be a fakeout? Yep
Could we trade higher? Yep
This market has been eating bears alive for months. But the fact that all of this behavior is confirmed across so many indices means that I think that this is not simply a 'B wave' down or some short term trend change (Minute degree or lower).
This (to me at any rate) has the earmarks of a Minor Degree trend change.
.... Arrrrr :)
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9 months ago