Yep, the VIX is a squirrely beast indeed (are squirrels technically beasts? Rabbits certainly are, just see Monty Python and the Holy Grail for proof). Lots of break outs and breakdowns. Tales of angst and woe ... yet hope remains ... for more volatility?
Anyways, that's what I think. Volatility has been drawing inexorably down for over a year, just as the market has been inexorably rising the last 9 months. Yet, I don't think that trend will continue. In fact I expect it to rise pretty dramatically in the not-too-distant future.
The VIX was putting on some serious positive divergence for a while, and I think the spike down a few weeks ago (while still maintaining positive divergence) was the end of the move. Here are my three longer term VIX charts:
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1 year ago