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Thursday, February 7, 2013

Feb 7

I am seeing an interesting setup take place, which is the 'broadening top' (which is highly distorted and stylized at this point). The reason why I think this is a possible valid setup is because of some very interesting similarities to the short term peak in early 2010.

The early 2010 peak displayed a 'broadening top' for about a week in mid January 2010. The current churn and potential broadening top here has happened the last week of Jan/first week of Feb 2013. So the seasonal phasing is pretty good. We had a strong and very pronounced 3-wave move up from the previous November lows in both instances. And we have extremely similar long and short duration PPO movements on the 60-minute timeframe.

This is making me question if this could be a reversal pattern instead of consolidation which is what I had been thinking. However, we have a pretty good defined level now (see second chart below), and if we stay above that level then I still think the 1530 target is appropriate before the next significant correction. However, if we close below it, then I think the chances of a significant correction being in progress now becomes greatly increased.



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