May 5 (and a Long Term View Update)

For the past several days (see my last 3 posts) I have been saying that we reached the end of a large wave up and a significant top was forming. I gave a threshold / confirmation level and that level was broken just now (with gusto). On Monday my Trend System said that a significant top was likely forming (not a simple two day pullback) via my 60 minute chart and I have been trading that way for the last few days. A couple more days like this and my Daily chart will say the same thing.

Now, I say significant top. Does that mean 'P3' started on Monday? ... Hardly. Anybody who has been reading my work for the last several months knows that I abandoned that option. Here is the most recent large study of what I think the landscape looks like: First Derivative of the S&P 500, Long Term Study.

I am updating a few of my longer term charts so that you can see what I am currently thinking.

Short term (I am counting this move down as a sharp double corrective)


Last Intermediate wave:


And NO, it wasn't an impulse:


Primary Degree Wave: