Saturday, August 22, 2009

Looking at the Rally Progress, Bigger Picture, and Some Wave Comparisons

I was going back and looking at the Wave A rally. I said on Friday that this was a Pathetic Wave B, and that it reminded me of the pathetic Wave B pullback in March. So I decided to go back and do some comparisons:

First A-B-C zigzag in March:
1. After a very clear impulsive, extended 5 wave move, Wave B is a meager 30% pullback.
2. Wave B is an Expanded Flat
3. Wave C is Diagonal

Middle A-B-C:
1. The meat of the "correction" takes place here
2. There is no real price retracement.
3. In fact the second X ends at about the same level as the first C
4. This makes the middle X-A-B-C-X and time extension (sideways extension) of the rally, and not a harsh price corrective wave

Final A-B-C:
1. After a very clear impulsive, extended 5 wave move, Wave B is a meager 24% pullback.
2. Wave B is an Expanded Flat
3. Wave C is .....

Okay, now here is where things get very interesting.

Right now we are seeing C wave shape up to be a very clear 5 wave structure. It has been nearly vertical so far with no hint of a harsh price corrective wave. And like I say in my last post, it seems like (at this moment) wave C wants to go out in a "Blaze of Glory".

However .... If we look at A-B-C of the first zigzag and the A-B-C of the last zigzag, the are some "spooky" similarities between A and B of both sets.

If the comparison holds true, then we can expect an ending diagonal for C, which is what Col and I were talking about on Friday.

So here is what I suggest.

1. Currently C is looking vertically impulsive
2. If we get a clear extended 5-wave sequence, then C is done
3. However we have 2 more 4th waves showing up in the sequence (based on the current count)
4. If one of these 4th waves has a severe price retrace of the previous impulse, something on the order of 61.8-78.6%, then I would suggest that this is really a B wave (since in extended waves, retraces are usually limited to 31.8-50.0%), and the previous move is an A.

What I am getting at is a way to tell early on if this seemingly straightforward final impulse for the final C will morph into an ending diagonal (which my gut is telling me it will).

I really think the overall wedge from March until Sept-Oct wants to fulfill itself and an ending diagonal seems to fit in time (extending the wave out until October) and shape.

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