I have watched and posted on long term VIX divergences (and the fact that there has not been any in this cyclical bull market) many times. [See here, and here, and here, etc.] This continues to be one of the reasons why I think this cyclical bull market is not over, nor are we near the top of it. Once we start seeing a VIX divergence of >several months (combined with other internal indicator divergences that I have discussed previously), then I think we would have a setup for a major top. But we have nothing even remotely of the sort now.
I have also posted about the fact that short term VIX divergences very often accompany the short term (Minor and Intermediate degree) pullbacks in this cyclical bull. Well, today the potential short term VIX divergence that had been building since the end of January has evaporated. See below. This rally still wants to continue. My guess has been to 1530, but maybe that should now be qualified with 'at least'. The prevailing sentiment seems to be 'we are going to get a pullback any day now' and rallies love to grind higher in that kind of short term sentiment. We'll see how the next couple of weeks play out, but I am certainly not going to be surprised by a slow drift higher.
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1 year ago