I analyze macroeconomic issues from a fundamental perspective, and I analyze market behavior from a technical perspective. Original macroeconomic analysis can be found here and both macro analysis and commentary can be found on my Caps blog. If you like or appreciate my analysis, please add yourself to my Following List

Friday, April 29, 2011

April 28

Current count. This wave is looking a lot like the end of the February wave. I don't know if this is the end of it, but it looks like we are very near. Also no pullbacks at all, just sideways consolidation and stair-stepping into highly overbought territory.

This last wave for the past week and a half is not an impulse. If you want to be ridiculous and call it an impulse, that is your prerogative.

And speaking of ridiculous impulsive counts, I still see a lot a counts trying to call the move since last July as an impulse. And I disagree with that pretty vehemently.

This final move is looking like it will get toward my target area of 1370 (give or take a few points) with virtually no pullback. That doesn't seem particularly healthy to me.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

April 27

Current count (slight modification)

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

April 26

Current thoughts

Thursday, April 21, 2011

April 21

Current count. Continuing with the same count I have been holding for a while now.

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

April 20

Today's move was not unexpected. See previous count history.

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

April 19

No change in the count.

Monday, April 18, 2011

April 18

Current thoughts:

Friday, April 15, 2011

April 15

Current Count:

Thursday, April 14, 2011

April 14

Current count:

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

April 12

Current count:

Monday, April 11, 2011

April 11

Current count:

Friday, April 8, 2011

April 8

We finally got a decent directional move that broke support. Here are my short and intermediate term thoughts.

Thursday, April 7, 2011

April 7

Very volatile day in the market, with a lot of sound and fury that in the end signified pretty much nothing.

Key support still holds on the Nasdaq Composite.

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

April 6

Current count. I don't love the wave count for the last Y wave, but it is a three so that's what I am going with for right now.

We will see if this breaks support tomorrow or mutates sideways/up. Internals and indicators are really weakening however.

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

April 5

Slightly modified count, shown below:

Monday, April 4, 2011

Snack Attack

So far the market keeps making higher highs and is retesting broken resistance and confirming as support.

If we have a Minute degree trend change, we need to see some follow through to the down side and so far it is not happening.

Sunday, April 3, 2011

Crazy Delicious

Nope, no new analysis (or even a new video), just a lazy Sunday

.... Snack Attack Motherfucker

Friday, April 1, 2011

April 1

Third verse (almost) the same as the first. My call for the end of Minute W was slightly premature. We had a first of the month pop this morning that overlapped and made another three up, turning the last wave into a more complex WXY.

Current count: